Week 13 Preview

(TUES 7:00) Akron @ Kent State (total 49.5) OVER, Fan Duel

We have a weeknight MACTION battle for the coveted Wagon Wheel Trophy in Kent, Ohio! This bitter rivalry matches up 2-win Akron and 0-win Kent State in the Super Bowl for both teams. I’m on the over in this barnburner. Most of you will say “Dusk, these offenses are atrocious!”. In turn, I will simply pull up the defensive metrics for these two teams which are putrid, putting it nicely. Akron will be able to run all over Kent State, every running back Kent State plays becomes Adrian Peterson. On the flip side, Kent state has two nice weapons on the outside at WR and as an offense has been able to put up points when not facing the best defenses in the MAC, which Akron is not. This total falls into the Mids-Over system play, I would be a fool not to play it on some weeknight MACTION.

(SAT 12:00) Ole Miss (-10) @ Florida, Cesars

Yes, Florida has looked much better with Freshman DJ Lagway at QB, but they are playing their 4th game in a row. Ole miss is coming off a bye. Those two factors alone make me lean Ole Miss. Add in Ole Miss is playing for a playoff spot still and they bring the best defensive line in the country to the swamp. I’ll take Ole Miss at -10 or under.

(SAT 12:00) Indiana @ Ohio State (total 51.5) UNDER, Fan Duel

I think this game is going to resemble a PSU/OSU/MICH type game, or known as BIG 10 Football. It will be a defensive game that when you look on the scoreboard, it will appear like a game in the NFL. I think this is game played where your winner may not reach 27. Ohio State’s starting center is done for the year as of this week. I think that will force Ohio State’s offensive to pivot and it might take a week or two, they are already down a starting tackle. Indiana’s offense on the other hand is about to face athletes on defense they have seen one other time, the Michigan game which was a 20-15 win. I like the under in this one. The underdog might not be a bad play with the points too.

(SAT 12:00) North Carolina @ Boston College (total 55) UNDER, Bet Rivers

A windy and rainy day in Boston, Massachusetts. It should be a low scoring game. North Carolina and Boston College both have solid run defenses. In a game where running the ball effectively will be crucial to scoring, I think both teams get stuck in the mud. I am on the under, also might look at Boston College money line.

(SAT 12:00) Illinois @ Rutgers (total 48) UNDER, Bet Rivers

BIG 10 Football…. again, but it’s with 2 of the worst run defenses in the conference and 2 of the more solid pass defenses. I expect a running clock type game here with a lot of run plays called. Winds will be consistently over 10-12 mph so that will also help ground any aerial attack these two teams may have. Rutgers offense is led by 1000-yard rusher RB Kyle Monangai, while Illinois has 3 RB’s with over 300 yards and 4.5 yards per carry this season. These 2 teams will be running it, Id’ take the under down to 47.

(SAT 2:30) New Mexico State @ Middle Tennessee (total 51) OVER, Draft Kings

"Mids-Over System" Play. As I discussed above, this game fits the criteria we are looking for (total in between 49-54.5, spread within 7, and 2 bad defenses). Both teams love to give up points. Middle Tennessee has only allowed under 20 points twice (UTEP and Kennesaw State), meanwhile New Mexico State has given up over 30 points in every FBS game they have played this year.

(SAT 3:00) Charlotte @ Florida Atlantic (total 48.5) OVER, Fan Duel

“Mids-Over System Play”. Two bad offenses with worse defenses. The spread is 2.5 points. I think it stays close and forces these offenses to try and score some points at the end and win. Both of these teams have hit the over more than the under this season.

(SAT 3:30) BYU @ Arizona State (-3), Cesars

BYU’s fall from grace continues here. Arizona State is one of the better teams against the spread, 8-2 overall and 5-0 at home. Arizona State RB Cam Skattebo looked great against Kansas State last week and now he faces a BYU defense that has been leaky against the run. Arizona State covers by a field goal.

(SAT 3:30) Tulsa @ South Florida (total 60.5) OVER, Draft Kings

Both teams just fired their head coach, so this is a double new coach bump. These offenses are going to let it all hang out against 2 below average pass defenses. Both teams have solid run defenses, so I expect big plays through the air and a lot of stoppage of the clock with incompletions opposed to a run heavy game with running clock. Over- Taker looking to rise again.

(SAT 3:30) The Citadel @ Clemson (total 58.5) UNDER, Fan Duel

Clemson has offensive line injuries and is looking to get out of this game quickly and healthily as possible. South Carolina’s on deck so Clemson wants a quick win and get out of there. Give me anything under 56.5. My favorite play of the week.

(SAT 4:00) Pittsburgh (+8.5) @ Louisville, Bet MGM

I just can’t quit Pitt and Louisville is coming off a rough loss to Stanford. I’ll take Pitt over a touchdown.

(SAT 5:00) Troy @ Louisiana (total 53.5) OVER, Draft Kings

Hey, look at that, another Mids-Over System play. Troy has a bad defense that is going up against an efficient Louisiana offense. While Troy’s offense has looked better in recent weeks under back-up QB Matthew Caldwell. He will face a middle of the pack Sun Belt defense. I think this one stays close and gets us to the over.

(SAT 7:00) Washington State (-12.5) @ Oregon State, Draft Kings

Oregon State is having QB trouble this season and their defense is allowing anybody to score at will on them. Including last week against frickin’ Air Force, Respect to the troops. I’ll take Washington State under 2 touchdowns in this “PAC-2” Championship.

(SAT 7:00) Alabama (-13.5) @ Oklahoma, Cesars

Alabama is rolling and Oklahoma has 1 SEC win, against Auburn! Jalen Milroe has been using his legs a lot. I think this is a low scoring game, under could be in play here.

(SAT 10:30) Colorado State (+3.5) @ Fresno State

I’m taking Colorado State over a field goal. If Colorado State wins their last two games, they will be in the Mountain West Conference Championship. I’ll take Colorado State over a field goal.