Week 6 Preview

(THUR 7:00) Texas State (-13.5) @ Troy, BET MGM (2 Units)

Troy’s starting QB, Goose Crowder, was carted off the field last week. Troy’s back-up, Tucker Kilcrease, was also injured. Now Troy plays a game 5 days later. They already have a below-average offense, now they are down to a possible 3rd string QB? They are toast. On defense Troy must prepare for an offense that can score a lot of points in again 5 days. I like Texas State to get back on track after 2 straight losses.

(FRI 7:30) Houston (+17) @ TCU, Bet Rivers ‘Aug Dog of the Week’

Auggie and I decided to go back to where we started with the ‘Aug Dog’ of the week, Friday night dogs!! Look, we know Houston has a shit offense and hasn’t scored a touchdown since Fall has hit, but TCU has a shit defense that might just allow Houston to score once or twice. Houston, however, has a great defense that matches up well with TCU. We are taking the 17 I found because we believe Houston has a good enough defense, led by HC Willie Fritz, to keep things close. I wouldn’t touch this under 16. The lowest I would go is +16.5.

(FRI 9:00) Michigan State @ Oregon (total 52.5) OVER, Bet Rivers

I like the over in this one because I think Oregon has found its offense and can put up some big points in this game. Michigan State has a pour defense as it is. Now it must travel across the country on a weeknight and play QB Dillon Gabriel and Oregon’s offense. Oregon is also coming off a bye and Michigan State was just beat up by Ohio State. On the other side Oregon’s defense has given up a few big plays, which is the only thing Michigan State and QB Aidan Chiles has in their bag. I don’t expect this to be a game, but I think Mich St can score twice to get us to an over. If the over scares, you in this game look for Oregon Team total over 37.5 or even the spread at 24.5.

(SAT 12:00) Purdue @ Wisconsin (total 45.5) UNDER, Bet Rivers

WIND GAME ALERT!!! Wind speeds that reach over 13 mph consistently have been known to cash the Under at a 57% rate. The wind for this game in Wisconsin will be roughly 15 mph. That wind with 2 very poor offenses means a snooze fest under should be on our hands. Both teams rank in the top half of turnovers in the BIG10, averaging 1.5 a game. Both teams rank in the bottom half of the BIG10 in most passing metrics. Even their run games are mediocre. I expect a ground and pound style game that drains the clock. I’d take the under down to 43.5.

(SAT 12:00) Missouri (+2.5) @ Texas A&M, Fan Duel (profit boost)

Missouri is coming off a bye and has time to prepare for Texas A&M. If Missouri can control TX A&M’s DE Nic Scourton off the edge, I think they can have a big day on offense. Missouri has one of the most explosive WR’s in the country in Luther Burden who has been steady but waiting to break out. I’ll take Missouri here; I think they can win the game as well.

(SAT 12:00) Navy (-9.5) @ Air Force, Fan Duel

This one pains me. I hate to see a civil war break out between our service academies. However, when these two militaries line up, I will be siding with the Navy. This Air Force team is all sorts of awful. One of the worst ranked defenses in the country going up against Navy’s very efficient pass offense behind QB Blake “the Admiral” Horvath. I like Navy to cover anything under 10. Also, I know service academy games are notoriously low scoring, but Navy has big play potential. The total in this game is floating in high the 30’s, so something to keep in mind.

(SAT 1:00) Tulane (-14.5) @ UAB, Fan Duel

This is a fade the Head Coach play. UAB is in all sorts of turmoil, and I believe HC Trent Dilfer is a dead man walking. Tulane has been explosive on offense and UAB just got done getting chewed up by NAVY!! It’s bad at UAB, former president Jimmy Carter seems to have a better chance at seeing next Saturday compared to HC Trent Dilfer. Id be careful though taking anything over -15.5.

(SAT 3:30) Indiana (-13.5) @ Northwestern, Fan Duel

We are still riding with Indiana after their nice cover last week in their Big 10 opener at home. This week will be a tougher cover with it being a road game against another conference opponent. The good thing is their opponent is one of the worse teams in the P5, Northwestern. As we know, Northwestern is playing in a soccer stadium on the lake, so no real home field crowd/advantage exists there. Northwestern has a poor offense that I think the Indiana defense should be able to keep in check. I like Indiana in anything under 2 touchdowns.

(SAT 6:30) Colorado State @ Oregon State (-11.5), Fan Duel

I like Oregon St at home. They are 17-4 against the spread at home since 2021. It is a difficult place for opposing offense to play. This week Oregon St plays Colorado State, who once again have injury concerns with star WR Tory Horton. I expect Oregon State’s defense to keep one of the worst rated QB’s in FBS, Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi for Colorado State, who has thrown 2 touchdowns all season. I like Oregon State up to -12.5.

(SAT 7:30) Nevada @ San Jose State (-7), Draft Kings

I love this San Jose State team. They have a solid defense and a nice rushing offense under HC Ken from Navy. SJ State is coming of a bye and they are itching to get the taste of the barn burner they lost 2 weeks ago to Washington State. Nevada has been very mediocre with their only decisive win was against FCS Eastern Washington. Nevada is giving up more than 4.5 yards per carry, but even worse they are giving up almost 7 yards per completion through the air. I think San Jose Sate will be able to handle Nevada at home.