Week 5 Preview

(FRI 7:30) Virgina Tech @ Miami (1st Half Team Total over 17.5), Draft Kings

50% Profit Boost Used*

Let’s get the weekend started with a bet using a profit boost on Draft Kings, the profit boost is specifically for this game. I’m using a 50% Profit Boost on Miami Team Total 1st half over 17.5. I like this play for a couple reasons. Miami has scored more than 20 points in the first half of each game this season. It also helps that Miami QB Cam Ward is going up against one of the worst pass defenses in the P5 in Virgina Tech. I am not playing the game spread of -17.5 because a back door cover by VT could be possible, but if Miami wants QB Cam Ward to win the Heisman, they will run it up. I expect Hurricane Helene to have passed by kickoff in Miami, but Hurricane Cam Ward will be causing destruction instead. Look out VT, I like a big first half by the Hurricanes.

(SAT 12:00) Navy (-3.5) @ UAB, Draft Kings

Are you an American? If yes, then you hammer Navy and support the troops. If no, you are missing out and are you going to trust a Trent Dilfer led team in a fox hole? Last year these two teams played and UAB looked like the Imperial Army at Iwo Jima. Navy was running all over them last year, just like in 1945, and they won the game 31-6. This year Navy has just as good of ground game and they implemented a new attack this year, the air. Navy has developed a nice passing offense behind QB Blake Horvath, highest rated QB in FBS. When defenses load the box Horvath has been acting like the USS Lexington at the Battle of the Philippine Sea, just dropping bombs on defensive positions. I expect Navy to handle UAB, I’d take our servicemen up to -5.5. God Bless the troops!

(SAT 12:00) Maryland @ Indiana (-6.5), Fan Duel

I’m staying on the Hoosier wagon this weekend and going back to Indiana. This game is going to be slowed down by rain and inclement weather which I think favors Indiana, more than Maryland. Indiana on offense is well rounded and has a veteran QB ready to play in poor conditions. Maryland is a passing team that could be stifled by the weather. If they must stick to running the ball that will help the Hoosiers. I like Indiana anything under a touchdown.

(SAT 3:00) Texas State (-8.5) vs. Sam Houston, Fan Duel

This is a neutral game site, so I’m not worried about this game not being in San Marcos. I like that the game is being played at NRG Stadium in Houston, where the Texans play. I feel like that’s a fast track and play perfect to Texas State’s speed on offense. QB Jordan McCloud should be able to run and throw all over this Sam Houston team that has struggled on defense mightily compared to last year’s defense. Texas State is also coming off a tough loss to Arizona State last Thursday and I think this is a great spot to get right in their conference opener. Give me Texas State anything up to -9.5 on a “fast track”.

(SAT 3:30) Wisconsin @ USC (-14.5), Fan Duel

Not the best number here but I have faith in USC bouncing back against a Wisconsin team playing a back-up QB. Wisconsin has been suspect to big passing plays and a good offense, which USC has. I expect USC QB Miller Moss to have a big day and carry the Trojans over the Badgers. I wouldn’t tough this past -15.5

(SAT 3:30) UMass @ Miami OH (total 46.5) UNDER, Fan Duel

Ugly game here. I’m betting this MACtion based on the weather. Hurricane Helene is supposed to be in the area with wind and rain. I believe that will stop a lot of offense from happening. Both offenses are two of the least successful offenses to play. Miami OH has a competent defense that should contain UMass’ poor excuse for an offense. I expect Miami OH on offense to run the ball and keep the clock moving. I’d take the under down to 44.5.

(SAT 3:30) Oklahoma @ Auburn (total 46.5) UNDER, Fan Duel

Another ugly game, this game features two awful offenses and two average to above average defenses. Oklahoma is changing QBs from Jackson Arnold to Freshman Michael Hawkins. He is making his first start in an SEC stadium? Good Luck! As for Auburn, they have two quarterbacks who can’t stop turning the ball over. Those two quarterbacks play a feisty Oklahoma defense this week what held Tennessee to 25 points the previous week. I think this game is going to be a sloppy football game, therefore I must add it to the card.

(SAT 3:30) Eastern Michigan (-14.5) @ Kent State, Fan Duel

More MACtion!! This is a fade of Kent State more than a pick of how I love EMU. Kent State is looking to be one of the most historically bad teams in college football ever. They have been shut-out in 2 straight games and lost to FCS St.Francis(PA) before that. Kent State is also down to its 3rd string QB, Tommy Ulatowski. The spread is a lot and I get EMU is not a juggernaut right now, but they are 3-1 and beat the same St.Francis(PA) team 36-0. I have confidence that EMU can handle Kent State. I’d take EMU in this game up to -16.5.

(SAT 7:00) Tulsa @ North Texas (-6.5), Fan Duel

I was on Tulsa last week in the Aug Dog of the week because they were facing LA Tech, who has a coach on the ropes and just a very lackluster team. Tulsa was the better team but not by much, as they squeaked out an OT win. This week Tulsa is still on the road with a match-up in Denton, Texas against the University of North Texas, who is no LA Tech, in a good way. North Texas has a high scoring offense, 12th in the nation in drop back offensive success rate, meaning when NT calls pass plays usually good things happen. They are led by QB Chandler Morris who has 11 TD’s, 6 interceptions, and 1200 yards. NT is averaging over 38 ppg and I expect them to lay into a Tulsa pass defense that has given up 9 pass TD’s and 995 yards. Tulsa’s offense hasn’t been much better, with freshman QB Kirk Francis. I like North Texas under a touchdown.

(SAT 10:00) Washington State (+7.5) @ Boise State, Fan Duel “Aug Dog of the Week”

Auggies says this game is going to have a lot of points. Boise State is led by one of the top players in the country, RB Ashton Jeanty. He has been running all over opposing teams and has racked up 9 TD’s. Washington State on the other hand has do everything QB John Mateer, who can hurt you with his legs and his arm. The difference in this game will be the defenses. Auggie and I think Washington State has a slight advantage due to their 3rd/4th down conversion rates. Washington State has been average at stopping those conversions on defense and been great at converting them on offense, 76th and 35th respectively. Boise State ranks high in their ability to convert in 3rd and 4th downs at 17th nationally but allows those conversions at 122nd nationally as well. Auggie and I expect Washington State to get a few more timely stops than Boise State. We like the Cougars to cover and maybe you could think about using them in a ML parlay.