Week 3 Preview

(FRI 8:00) Arizona (-8) @ Kansas State, Bet Rivers “Aug Dog of the Week”

The “Aug Dog of the week” is back again with another Friday Night road ~~house~~, I mean dog. Auggie and I went down to the Double Deuce and decided to back Arizona in this week’s bar fight with Kansas State. Auggie thinks K-State’s QB Avery Johnson “is too stupid to have a good time.” Sure thing Auggie! Seriously, we like Arizona for a couple reasons. Last week Arizona had a weird game against Northern Arizona where they went down by 7 but ended up winning 22-10, Kansas State however squeaked by Tulane with the help of some questionable calls by the refs. Most noticeably about Kansas State was their lack of pass defense and how they let a freshman QB torch them all game. That’s bad news when you have a star QB/WR Duo coming to town in Noah Fifita and Tet McMillan. I expect them to be able to move the ball down the field and keep Kansas State trying to play keep up. That might not be the best either, for a team that was struggling to throw the ball down field last week against Tulane. I expect QB Avery Johnson to move the ball on the ground with his legs a little more this game, but Arizona has the talent to bend but not break when containing him. We are on Arizona in a game that ends in someone’s throat getting ripped out. I’d take this game all the way to 7, be careful at 6.5 or lower.

(SAT 12:00) LSU @ South Carolina (total 50.5) UNDER, Fan Duel

South Carolina is coming off a big win against Kentucky while LSU eventually bullied Nichols State. South Carolina’s defense looked very good against Kentucky, DE Dylan Stewart is a freshman who could snap me in half, he and the rest of the d-line got some great pressure on the QB. The Cocks offense put up some points but didn’t put up great stats. LSU has an improved defense over last year, last year’s was BAD, and their offense is still explosive through the air, with QB Garrett Nuessmeir and WR Lacy, but they do not have a great run game right now. Gameday will be in Columbia for this game as well, add a possible WR injury to LSU’s depth and some rain showers. I think we have an under on our hand’s folks. I wouldn’t go any lower than 48.5 on this total.

(SAT 3:30) Utah @ Utah State (total 44) UNDER, Fan Duel

This is a play based on Utah’s QB Cam Risings injury to his throwing hand. Last week Utah was on its way to a rout of Baylor when Rising hurt his hand. This allowed Baylor to get back in the game and lose by 10 and beat the spread. Risings back-up is Isaac Wilson, who is the younger brother of MILF Buster NFL QB Zach Wilson. Isaac looked out of place against the Baylor Bears last week. I expect Utah to lean on the run and grind out a low scoring game against Utah State. Utah’s defense is one of the tops in the country, so I expect them to hold Utah State to a low score. I’d take this down to 42.5.

(SAT 3:30) Washington State @ Washington (-4.5), Fan Duel

The Apple Cup is always a great rivalry game. I’m taking Washington for some simple reasons. They are the home team and have won 9 of the last 10 matchups. Also new HC Jedd Fisch was at Arizona last season and coached many of these Washington players who beat Washington State 44-6. This year he has former Miss St QB Will Rodgers and his star RB from Arizona, Jonah Coleman. I also believe the market might be a little high on Washington State, even though we backed them, after their win last week against a banged-up Texas Tech. Ill take the Huskies. Bark! Bark! Id take it up to 5.5 but no higher.

(SAT 4:00) App State (-2.5) @ ECU, Draft Kings

This game is another one where I’m not sure the market is reading App State correctly. I felt everybody overreacted to Clemson’s loss to Georgia in week 1, and now everyone has overreacted to App State getting killed by Clemson. Georgia is making people think crazy things about other teams and it trickles down. I also like App State because of the QB match up here. App State has senior Joey Aguilar who was the preseason Sun Belt player of the year this year. He has 5 total touchdowns and 0 turnovers. Let’s compare that to East Carolinas QB, Jake Garcia. He has 7 interceptions through 2 games, 3 of them in the last game against Norfolk State! I’m on App State and the better QB. Gotta have this at 2.5.

(SAT 7:30) Colorado (-7.5) @ Colorado State, Draft Kings

Yes, Colorado got manhandled by Nebraska last week. They were dominated at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, like we predicted. The great thing about this week is that Colorado plays in-state rival Colorado State, who has nowhere near the line play that Nebraska does. I expect QB Sheduer Sanders to light up the Colorado State secondary. HC Jay Norvell for the Rams is without star safety from last year’s 2OT game, Henry Blackburn, who took a cheap shot at Buffs WR Travis Hunter. Colorado State might also be without their best overall player WR Tory Horton as he deals with a strain groin. There will be too much speed on the outside for the Buffs and not enough interior push by the Rams to make a difference. Also, Shilo Sanders being hurt might help the Buffs defense because of his selfish play this season. I like HC Deion Sanders to get a MUCH-NEEDED big win, otherwise this Halloween will be scarier than attending his PRIME Academy!

(SAT 7:30) Indiana (-2.5) @ UCLA, Bet Rivers

This pick seems dicey taking Indiana on a cross-country trip, but this aint yo mommas Indiana. This is HC Curt Signetti’s team. He is leading Indiana in his first season but comes from a pedigree of winning, he was at JMU last couple years and led them to great success in their move up to FBS. He will be taking his team to face a team coached by a first time ever head coach in Deshawn Foster. He might be a little over his head in his first year and this being his first conference game he is facing a very savvy coach in Signetti. Indiana looked sharp in their first two games, while UCLA struggled with Hawaii in their opener. The highest id take this is 3 flat.

PARLAY PLAY

Texas -20.5 1st half and Georgia -13.5 1st half – 1 unit - FANDUEL +224

This is for anybody who has a FanDuel account. I really wanted to give out Texas -20.5 first half spread against UTSA but the juice was too high (-130). So, I decided to parlay with another 1st half spread, Georgia -13.5 at Kentucky. I think both teams will run out to big leads and coast home in the second half. If you can’t get this at 20.5 or 13.5 then don’t bother. The numbers are very important in this one for me.

Adding as of Friday 9/13

(SAT 3:30) WVU @ PITT (total 61) OVER, Fanduel

It’s the Backyard Brawl, anything can happen. This season both offenses are playing up tempo and moving the ball well. While both defenses are prone to giving up big explosive plays. Last year’s game was low scoring, but two years ago it was a 38-31 game. I like a high scoring affair in this one.

(SAT 12:00) Memphis @ Florida State (-6.5), Fanduel

Ok everybody lookout, I am sticking my hand in the mouse trap, and I am hoping to not get my fingers chopped off. Let’s see how this goes. FSU must get it figured out eventually, right? A G5 team coming to town should help them fix their issues or at least hide them against a much inferior opponent. If FSU doesn’t cover, I may fade them every week out of principle.