2025 Week 4 Picks
2025 Week 4 Picks
2025 Week 4 Picks
2025 Week 4 Picks
We have 2 Noon Overs today that are being bet straight up and parlayed together.
9/20 (12:00) SMU @ TCU Total 63.5 OVER
Bet Rivers, 1 Unit to win 1.8 Units
Over the past 4 meetings only one matchup has not reached a total of 70 points, (2023, 51 points). TCU has looked very efficient on offense and SMU has a big play QB in Jennings that can hit the explosives.
SMU 24 @ TCU 35, LOSS
9/20 (12:00) Arkansas @ Memphis Total 61 OVER
Cesars, 1 Unit to win 1.9 Units
I like both QBs in this match-up (Arkansas' Taylen Green and Memphis' Brendon Lewis). They both can march their offenses up and down the field and score points. It should be a close game late which will help us get the over as well.
Arkansas 31 @ Memphis 32, WIN 1.9 Units
2 Noon Over Parlay SMU/TCU OVER & ARK/MEM OVER
Fan Duel, +250 w/ 50% Boost +376, .5 Units to win 2.3 Units
LOSS
9/20 (3:30) Kent State @ Florida State
FSU 1st Quarter -11.5
Bet Rivers, 1 Unit to win 1.8 Units
FSU 1st Half -26.5
Fan Duel, 1 Unit to win 1.8 Units
Florida State's OC Gus Malzhan will be slinging it all over the place in the 1st half. Even if back-ups enter the game, I expect FSU to run it up.
1st quarter Kent State 7 @ FSU 35, WIN 1.8 Units
1st half Kent State 7 @ FSU 45, WIN 1.8 Units
9/20 (3:30) Auburn @ Oklahoma -6.5
Fan Duel, w/ profit boost, .5 Unit to win 1.2 Units
I trust Oklahoma's defense to be all over QB Jackson Arnold. Then on the offensive side, Mateer will be able to make enough plays to get the cover. He needs to settle down some of his wacky throws and play more relaxed. Regardless the guy just wins.
Auburn 17 @ Oklahoma 24, WIN 1.2 Units
9/20 (4:30) Temple +24.5 @ Georgia Tech
Bet MGM, 1 Unit to win 1.8 Units
The Yellow Jackets will be in cruise control for this game just trying to get out with a win. That's too many points for a Temple team that isn't truly God awful.
Temple 24 @ Georgia Tech 45, WIN 1.8 Units
9/20 (6:00) Delaware @ FIU -4.5
Bet MGM, w/ 10% boost, 1 Unit to win 2 Units
FIU looked great last week against rival FAU. They are still at home and playing Delaware, an inferior opponent to FAU in my opinion.
Delaware 38 @ FIU 16, LOSS
9/20 (6:00) WVU @ Kansas -12.5
Bet MGM, 1.2 Units to win 2.1 Units
Big situational spot here. Kansas coming off a bye and WVU coming off an emotional OT win in the Backyard Brawl. Kansas is 4-0 against the spread in their last 4 games off the bye week.
WVU 10 @ Kansas 41, WIN 2.1 Units
9/20 (7:30) Georgia State +27.5 @ Vanderbilt
Cesars, 1 Unit to win 1.9 Units
Too many points for a team that lost to Georgia State last year even with Diego at the helm.
Georgia State 21 @ Vanderbilt 70, LOSS
9/20 (7:30) Illinois +6.5 @ Indiana
Fan Duel, 1 Unit to win 1.8 Units
These 2 teams are closer than a touchdown. Illinois might even be the better team.
Illinois 10 @ Indiana 63, LOSS
9/20 (9:00) Louisiana-Monroe @ UTEP -6.5
Cesars, 1 Unit to win 1.8 Units
Late night action while you are drinking. Tailing some sharps here.
Louisiana-Monroe 31 @ UTEP 25, LOSS
Another wacky week with some nail-biting wins and tough loses. We had a winning record this week, but due to missing on the parlay we had a negative in the units won. If SMU doesn’t drop a TD in the end zone in the 1st half, the Over probably hits in that game and so does the Over parlay which would have put us up 3 units on the week. We lost that one but got lucky in Temple/Georgia Tech game with Temple giving us a cover in the last 10 seconds. The Oklahoma/Auburn game was a win only because of a safety in the last minute of play by Auburn which gave Oklahoma the cover. As for the picks themselves, I feel we were on the right side for about half of them. Some should of went our way that didn’t, and others didn’t go our way that should have. Also, a couple games I could not have been more wrong on (ILL@IND, GAST@Vandy, and DEL@FIU).
6-5 Record
11.2 Units Risked, 10.6 Units Won, -0.6 Units on the weekend